New Zealand businesses move beyond COVID recovery story as resilience and growth take centre stage, 2degrees study finds

2degrees’ Shaping Business 2026 study suggests New Zealand businesses are entering a new economic era, with the long-running expectation of a post-COVID recovery now over.

Now in its seventh year, the annual study provides an important longitudinal snapshot of business sentiment, tracking how confidence, priorities and pressures have evolved since the pandemic began.

Based on a survey of more than 500 business decision makers across Aotearoa, the 2026 report reveals a significant shift in business sentiment – defined less by recovery and more by adaptation. Business leaders are increasingly accepting that the volatility and uncertainty of recent years are no longer temporary disruptions, but part of a more permanent operating environment.

Despite the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the report’s findings point to continued confidence in future growth. Sixty-one percent of businesses expect revenue growth over the next 12 months, while nearly half (49%) intend to increase investment. Among larger businesses, confidence is even stronger, with 78% expecting revenue growth and 71% planning to increase investment.

Importantly, this year’s research was conducted following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, capturing how rapidly evolving global volatility is influencing business confidence in real time.

From recovery to resilience    

For much of the past five years, the belief that conditions would eventually ‘return to normal’ acted as a quiet but consistent source of business optimism. This year’s findings suggest that effect has largely disappeared.

2degrees Chief Business Officer Andrew Fairgray says the long-term nature of the study makes this year’s shift particularly significant.

“For several years, many businesses held onto the belief that conditions would eventually stabilise and we’d return to something resembling pre-COVID normality,” says Fairgray. 

“This year’s report shows that mindset is fading and what’s emerging now is something more pragmatic. Businesses are no longer planning around a recovery cycle - they’re adapting to a fundamentally different environment where productivity, adaptability and strategic investment will be the key drivers of future growth.”

A more pragmatic business environment

The report found larger businesses are increasingly outperforming smaller operators across optimism, productivity and investment. Businesses with more than 50 employees were significantly more likely to report productivity gains (57%), investment growth (71%) and AI adoption (81%).

By contrast, many SMEs are facing rising operating costs and economic uncertainty.

The findings also reveal a growing generational divide. Businesses under five years old and owners under 35 were among the most optimistic cohorts surveyed, while 34% of businesses operating for more than 10 years – and owners aged over 45 – reported feeling less optimistic than they did in 2025.

Meanwhile, utilities, insurance and lease costs have overtaken labour as the fastest-rising source of business pressure, signalling a shift in exposure to fixed overheads that businesses have limited ability to control.

The report also suggests the conversation around AI is becoming more grounded with businesses increasingly looking for practical ways to use AI to improve productivity and efficiency.

“The conversation has shifted from ‘Should we use AI?’ to ‘How do we actually make this work in a meaningful way for our business?’,” says Fairgray.

The study also captured a significant rise in concern around global volatility and supply chain disruption, with businesses across multiple sectors calling for greater government support around supply chain resilience for the first time.

Despite ongoing pressures, Fairgray says the findings point to a more realistic and resilient business mindset rather than a collapse in ambition.

“There’s still ambition in the market, but businesses are becoming much more pragmatic about what success looks like in this environment,” he says.

“The organisations performing best are generally the ones embracing change, investing in capability and finding ways to stay agile despite ongoing uncertainty.”